Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 36,669
2 Mississippi 34,164
3 Florida 33,528
4 Alabama 32,729
5 North Dakota 31,976
6 Arizona 30,491
7 Iowa 29,764
8 South Carolina 29,710
9 Tennessee 29,616
10 Arkansas 29,183
11 Georgia 29,055
12 South Dakota 28,119
13 Texas 27,958
14 Nevada 26,958
15 Idaho 25,453
16 Nebraska 25,205
17 Utah 24,781
18 Wisconsin 24,712
19 Illinois 24,384
20 New York 24,244
21 Rhode Island 24,161
22 New Jersey 23,769
23 Oklahoma 23,590
24 Missouri 22,675
25 District of Columbia 22,177
26 Delaware 22,044
27 Kansas 21,975
28 Maryland 21,286
29 California 21,267
30 North Carolina 21,113
31 Massachusetts 19,725
32 Indiana 19,203
33 Minnesota 18,758
34 Virginia 17,946
35 Kentucky 17,400
36 Connecticut 16,616
37 Puerto Rico 16,199
38 New Mexico 14,758
39 Montana 14,626
40 Michigan 14,409
41 Ohio 13,799
42 Pennsylvania 13,299
43 Alaska 13,199
44 Colorado 12,942
45 Washington 12,435
46 Wyoming 11,697
47 West Virginia 9,450
48 Hawaii 9,245
49 Oregon 8,380
50 New Hampshire 6,421
51 Maine 4,139
52 Vermont 2,918

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 538
2 Montana 356
3 South Dakota 335
4 Wisconsin 335
5 Utah 334
6 Idaho 332
7 Tennessee 262
8 Alaska 248
9 Missouri 236
10 Nebraska 233
11 Wyoming 233
12 Oklahoma 218
13 Kansas 185
14 Minnesota 174
15 Arkansas 170
16 Iowa 169
17 Mississippi 169
18 Rhode Island 163
19 Kentucky 161
20 Alabama 142
21 Puerto Rico 142
22 Indiana 141
23 North Carolina 139
24 Illinois 136
25 South Carolina 134
26 Texas 131
27 Nevada 130
28 Louisiana 117
29 Delaware 116
30 New Mexico 103
31 Pennsylvania 103
32 Ohio 95
33 Colorado 92
34 Virginia 92
35 Connecticut 88
36 Michigan 88
37 West Virginia 87
38 Florida 85
39 District of Columbia 84
40 Maryland 82
41 Georgia 80
42 Massachusetts 79
43 California 74
44 Arizona 70
45 Washington 67
46 New Jersey 66
47 Oregon 65
48 New York 60
49 Hawaii 47
50 New Hampshire 32
51 Vermont 22
52 Maine 19

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,817
2 New York 1,687
3 Massachusetts 1,383
4 Connecticut 1,268
5 Louisiana 1,202
6 Rhode Island 1,061
7 Mississippi 1,017
8 District of Columbia 894
9 Arizona 784
10 Illinois 718
11 Michigan 717
12 Florida 687
13 South Carolina 674
14 Georgia 665
15 Delaware 663
16 Maryland 656
17 Pennsylvania 649
18 Texas 573
19 Indiana 551
20 Nevada 529
21 Alabama 526
22 Arkansas 486
23 Iowa 448
24 New Mexico 426
25 Ohio 423
26 California 411
27 Virginia 385
28 Minnesota 379
29 Tennessee 379
30 North Dakota 372
31 Missouri 367
32 Colorado 363
33 North Carolina 351
34 New Hampshire 328
35 Washington 296
36 Kentucky 280
37 South Dakota 280
38 Idaho 276
39 Oklahoma 269
40 Nebraska 264
41 Kansas 242
42 Wisconsin 242
43 Puerto Rico 217
44 West Virginia 203
45 Montana 179
46 Utah 152
47 Oregon 137
48 Hawaii 112
49 Maine 105
50 Vermont 92
51 Wyoming 91
52 Alaska 73

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arkansas 6
2 North Dakota 4
3 Iowa 3
4 Louisiana 3
5 Florida 2
6 Georgia 2
7 Idaho 2
8 Indiana 2
9 Missouri 2
10 Rhode Island 2
11 Tennessee 2
12 Texas 2
13 Alabama 1
14 California 1
15 Colorado 1
16 Hawaii 1
17 Illinois 1
18 Kentucky 1
19 Massachusetts 1
20 Michigan 1
21 Mississippi 1
22 Montana 1
23 Nebraska 1
24 North Carolina 1
25 Oklahoma 1
26 Pennsylvania 1
27 Puerto Rico 1
28 South Carolina 1
29 Utah 1
30 Washington 1
31 West Virginia 1
32 Wisconsin 1
33 Alaska 0
34 Arizona 0
35 Connecticut 0
36 Delaware 0
37 District of Columbia 0
38 Kansas 0
39 Maine 0
40 Maryland 0
41 Minnesota 0
42 Nevada 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 New Jersey 0
45 New Mexico 0
46 New York 0
47 Ohio 0
48 Oregon 0
49 South Dakota 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 160,703 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 154,855 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 150,390 3 99
Lafayette Florida 146,758 4 99
Lake Tennessee 133,694 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 42,686 207 93
Richland South Carolina 38,111 295 90
York South Carolina 20,279 1239 60
Orange California 17,789 1464 53
Pierce Washington 10,271 2300 26

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 5,085 1 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 2 99
Emporia city Virginia 4,863 3 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 4 99
Randolph Georgia 4,279 5 99
Richland South Carolina 604 723 76
Davidson Tennessee 457 1021 67
Orange California 406 1142 63
York South Carolina 299 1432 54
Pierce Washington 253 1586 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons